📍 If you only catch up on crypto once this week, start here.
War, crypto war-betting scandals, your super fund flirting with Bitcoin, and AI agents that can now hold their own wallets. Oh, and someone made a million dollars predicting airstrikes.
So yeah, this week in crypto — juicy as always! Let's get into it.
The market's having a bit of an identity crisis this week — most coins are down on the 7-day but quietly up double digits over the month. BTC is barely budging at $70,860 but zoom out, and it's up 10.6% in a month with a $3.31 trillion total market cap holding steady. The war noise is rattling short-term traders, but the longer view tells a different story. Make of that what you will.
Cryptocurrency prices by market cap via CoinGecko
Someone Made $1 Million Betting on a War. Congress Is Not Happy.
So what happened?
A single trader won a staggering 93% of their five-figure wagers on Polymarket, correctly predicting US and Israeli military actions against Iran — including bets placed just hours before unannounced strikes.
Why does it matter?
This isn't just a crypto story, it's a corruption story. Polymarket this week rewrote its rules to prohibit trades based on stolen confidential information or illegal tips, and clarified that traders cannot place bets if they hold a position of authority that could influence an outcome. That's a company scrambling to get ahead of regulators, not a company that had its house in order.
The bigger picture
Kalshi and Polymarket rushed to institute new guardrails this week after two key senators announced legislation that could severely curtail the industry's prospects — and both companies are reportedly seeking funding at valuations of around $20 billion each. The platforms that turned war into a betting market are now fighting for their lives in Washington. Whatever happens next shapes the future of prediction markets and how far crypto is allowed to go.
🟢 The Clarity Act Is Almost There — But Crypto Is Already Cringing — The latest version of the Clarity Act would grant stablecoin rewards programs on a narrow basis, as long as they don't resemble interest from bank deposits in any way — and the opening industry impression was that this language was overly narrow and unclear. The bill is inching toward a Senate Banking Committee hearing, but the industry got its first look and didn't love what it saw. Read more →
🟢 GameStop Reports Earnings — With 4,710 BTC Still on the Books — GameStop's most recent quarterly report revealed its Bitcoin treasury had fallen $9.2 million in value. At the same time, the company flagged it could sell BTC "as part of treasury management operations." With CEO Ryan Cohen reportedly eyeing a "very, very, very big" acquisition, the question is: does the BTC stash survive it? Read more →
🟢 Whales Are Loading Up While Everyone Else Panics — On-chain data from IntoTheBlock shows Bitcoin whales have continued to accumulate during falling prices, while retail investors with smaller balances are also buying the dip at a pace only seen previously right after the COVID crash. Smart money and everyday investors appear to be on the same side of this trade. Read more →
🟢 Gold Is Now More Volatile Than Bitcoin. Really. — Thirty-day volatility in gold has climbed above 44% — the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis — surpassing Bitcoin's roughly 39% volatility over the same period. The "Bitcoin is too volatile" argument just got a lot more complicated. Read more →
🟢 Decentralised Messaging Apps Are Spiking During the Iran Crisis — During recent protest movements in countries such as Indonesia, Iran, and Nepal, the decentralised peer-to-peer messaging service Bitchat recorded a noticeable jump in downloads — pointing to urgent user demand for privacy and communication resilience as governments restrict centralised apps like WhatsApp or Telegram. This is crypto doing something real in the world. Read more →
🟢 Australia's biggest super fund is eyeing Bitcoin for your retirement — Hostplus, which looks after $105 billion and nearly 2 million members, is exploring letting Australians hold Bitcoin and crypto through its self-directed ChoicePlus platform — potentially as early as next financial year. The fund's CIO Sam Sicilia told Bloomberg member demand has been growing, with people writing in to ask why they can't access crypto. Read more →
🟢 OKX just launched 24/7 trading on Tesla, Nvidia and the Mag 7 — using crypto — OKX has launched more than 20 equity perpetual swap contracts, letting users across Asia, Latin America and other eligible regions trade major global stocks around the clock using crypto as collateral. You can now react to a midnight earnings report without waiting for the NYSE to open. Read more →
🟢 MoonPay built a universal wallet for AI agents — and gave it away for free — MoonPay has launched an open-source wallet standard designed for AI agents to manage funds and execute transactions across multiple blockchains, backed by PayPal, the Ethereum Foundation, the Solana Foundation and Ripple, among others. The AI agent economy just got its own bank account. Read more →
🟢 FTX is paying out $2.2 billion to creditors next week — FTX is distributing another $2.2 billion to creditors beginning March 31 — its fourth payout — bringing total repayments to over $10 billion since the exchange collapsed in 2022. The slow, remarkable redemption of crypto's biggest scandal continues. Read more →
🟢 Bitcoin may be forming a bottom, says K33 — Bitcoin's consolidation between $60,000 and $75,000 reflects easing sell-side pressure from ETFs and long-term holders, with K33's head of research calling the current environment "constructive" despite subdued derivatives activity and limited inflows. Read more →
🟢 Non-USD stablecoins are quietly going mainstream — A new report from Visa and Dune Analytics finds mounting evidence that local currency stablecoins are being used as actual money, with the supply of non-USD stablecoins hitting $1.1 billion in February and showing weekend slowdowns consistent with business payments and payroll cycles. Read more →
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This week's term: Prediction market
A prediction market is a platform where you bet real money on whether something will happen — an election result, a sports score, or, apparently, when a country will get bombed.
Companies like Polymarket and Kalshi let users wager on the outcome of elections, sports contests, and many other events.
The price of a bet reflects what the crowd thinks the odds are, so a 70¢ bet paying $1 implies a 70% chance of that outcome. Think of it as crowdsourced forecasting with money on the line. The problem this week? Some people seem to have had a lot more than a hunch.
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Episode 223 - Three Signals You Don't Want to Ignore Right Now
TIMESTAMPS:
2:24 BTC drops 7% thanks to a single tweet!
3:47 Hyperliquid's (oil) slick move!
5:42 The SEC and CFTC names 16 crypto assets as digital commodities
7:47 Bitcoin miners in crisis
10:54 Short, sharp news bites
Which side of the handshake comes out on top?
Prediction markets just bet half a billion dollars on a war. Congress wants them shut down. The platforms want to self-regulate. And somewhere in the middle, crypto's credibility as a serious financial tool hangs in the balance.
Next week, Washington decides how much of this it's willing to tolerate. Watch this space.
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